Peace, justice in Taiwan Strait focus of Des Forges Symposium

To explore the complex cultural, historical and political interactions among the Republic of China, the People’s Republic of China and the United States with a view to maintaining de facto peace and defending human rights on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, experts from academia and “think tanks” will come together for a hybrid symposium on April 16 at UB.

The Alison Des Forges 2026 Symposium, “Peace and Justice in the Taiwan Strait,” will take place from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. in person in the Buffalo Room, 10 Capen Hall, North Campus, as well as virtually. Registration is required for all attendees to the event, which is free and open to the public.

The symposium honors the memory of Alison L. Des Forges, a member of the UB community who fought to call the world’s attention to a great humanitarian crisis: the Rwandan genocide.

Des Forges, a historian of Africa and Buffalo native, was an adjunct member of the UB history faculty during the 1990s and received an honorary SUNY doctorate during UB’s 155th general commencement ceremony in 2001.

She was one of the world’s leading experts on Rwanda, serving as an expert witness in 11 trials at the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda. Her award-winning book, “Leave None to Tell the Story: Genocide in Rwanda,” was a landmark account of the 1994 genocide, and her tireless efforts to awaken the international community to its horrors earned her a MacArthur Fellowship in 1999.

The symposium will open with welcoming remarks at 8:45 a.m. The morning presentations will run from 9 a.m. to noon. They will include the following talks:

• “Peace through Understanding?: A Survey of Taiwan’s Historical Trajectories,” Evan Dawley, associate professor of history, Goucher College.

The present formulations of Taiwan’s society and polity, and of cross-straits relations were built out of the different historical pathways that Taiwan has followed. Taiwan’s history has been defined by at least four major trajectories: the Indigenous, which extends far beyond recorded history; Sinicization, which began around the turn of the 17th century; Taiwanization, which started to develop in the 18th century; and Democratization, which emerged in the early decades of the 20th century.  Dawley will concentrate on the middle two of these processes, which extend across a chronology over 400 years and continue to unfold in the present. An understanding of what started these trajectories, how they evolved and how they intersect and diverge is essential to any effort at ensuring lasting peace and justice around the Taiwan Strait.

• “The Taiwan Tangle,” Sulmaan Wasif Khan, Denison Chair of International History, Fletcher School, Tufts University.

This talk traces the history of the triangular relationship between the United States, China and Taiwan, from 1943 to the present. By highlighting the decisions that actors from all three places made, it explores how the Taiwan problem originated — and how it might yet be peacefully resolved.

• “Why and How Taiwan Became an Issue in U.S. Relations with China,” Richard C. Bush, non-resident senior fellow, The Brookings Institution.

In recent years, the American media has reported on the possibility of a military attack by China on Taiwan and what the United States should do in response. But Taiwan has long been a point of contention between China and America. Bush will explain the background of the political dispute between the China and Taiwan governments, how the American role in that dispute has changed — and not changed — over the years, the impact of Taiwan’s transition to democracy over three decades ago, and why the danger of war appears to have increased.

• “Taiwan’s Domestic Politics: Views on U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations,” Sara A. Newland, associate professor of government, Smith College.

In contrast to most democracies, where political parties position themselves on a left-right spectrum, Taiwan exists in a uniquely threatening geopolitical context. As a result, presidential elections serve largely as a referendum on what Taiwan’s political relationship with China ought to be. Since 2016, in the context of rising Chinese aggression toward Taiwan and growing U.S.-China tensions, Taiwan’s political parties have increasingly competed by offering different answers to the question of how to best keep Taiwan safe from a Chinese attack.

For the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), closer alignment with the United States represents the island’s best chance for deterring an invasion. The opposition Nationalist Party (KMT), on the other hand, sees closer U.S.-Taiwan relations as a provocation to the Chinese government and argues that building closer ties to China is the best way to maintain Taiwan’s safety and security. This talk will discuss the role of U.S.-China-Taiwan relations in electoral competition between the DPP, KMT and an upstart third party, the Taiwan People’s Party, which has emerged as a major force in Taiwan politics in recent years.

The afternoon talks will run from 1-4 p.m. and will include the following presentations:

• “What’s Driving the U.S. and China to Compete—and Possibly Fight—in Taiwan,” Brian C. H. Fong, Distinguished Professor and associate dean, College of Social Sciences, National Sun Yat-sen University (Taiwan).

What motivates great powers to compete over one particular domain but not over the others? This talk examines how conflicting national interests are currently driving the U.S. and China to intensely compete and potentially fight in Taiwan, using an emerging theory called “neo-offensive realism.”

• “Strategic Ambiguity is the Only Option for Peace and Security in the Taiwan Strait,” Michael D. Swaine, senior research fellow, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

The United States and China have maintained an understanding regarding Taiwan that has kept the peace across the Taiwan Strait for over 40 years.  This understanding has traded the U.S. One China policy for a Chinese commitment to pursue peaceful unification as a priority. The core of the One China policy consists of the concept of strategic ambiguity, or dual deterrence. The idea is both to deter and reassure Beijing and Taipei, preventing or discouraging Chinese use of force against Taiwan and any efforts by Taiwan to establish de jure independence from Beijing.

The former is achieved by being open to any resolution of the China-Taiwan standoff that is peacefully arrived at and with the consent of both sides while maintaining a military deterrent against any Chinese use of force. The latter is achieved by remaining ambiguous on the U.S. commitment to actually defend Taiwan in a conflict while both avoiding any support for Taiwan independence and providing defensive arms to Taiwan in order to help deter China. This policy is designed to avoid conflict across the Taiwan Strait while leaving the door open to a possible eventual resolution of the situation.

Although severely strained at times, it nonetheless offers the only viable basis for ensuring a continued Chinese commitment to a peaceful resolution, while protecting U.S. interests regarding Taiwan.

• “Staying Out: A Strategy for Recalibrating U.S. Support for Taiwan,” Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis, Defense Priorities.

This talk will argue in favor of a nonintervention approach to Taiwan, in which the U.S. would end strategic ambiguity and declare that it would not defend Taiwan. Kavanagh will discuss why this is in U.S. interests and what should be done to support the policy change. 

• “The Risk of Nuclear Escalation and Humanitarian Crisis in a Taiwan Conflict,” Tong Zhao, senior fellow, Nuclear Policy Program and Carnegie China, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The presentation examines the risk that a conventional military conflict over Taiwan could escalate across the nuclear threshold. It analyzes how China’s ongoing nuclear buildup — and corresponding U.S. efforts to strengthen its own nuclear capabilities — may shape escalation dynamics, with particular attention to both sides’ growing interest in theater-range, lower-yield nuclear weapons.

The presentation explores how shifts in the conventional military balance, together with development of new military technologies such as missile defense, could create new pathways to deliberate or inadvertent nuclear escalation. Finally, the presentation assesses Chinese views on the applicability of International Humanitarian Law in a Taiwan conflict, identifying potential opportunities for the broader international community to raise the legal and normative costs of large-scale military action by an invading party.

Sponsors include the Alison Des Forges Memorial Committee and the Asian Studies Program; Baldy Center for Law and Social Policy; departments of Comparative Literature, Global Gender and Sexuality Studies, History and Political Science; Gender Institute; Humanities Institute; James Agee Chair in American Culture; and the Office of the Vice Provost for International Education.