Expert: Short-term uncertainties in Venezuela may have long-term geopolitical consequences

BUFFALO, N.Y. – The United States seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, violated the South American nation’s sovereignty. The international norm of sovereignty has been the cornerstone of the international world order the U.S. has helmed since the end of World War II, says a University at Buffalo political scientist.

The international world order refers to the set of norms, rules and institutions generally agreed upon by the international community needed to uphold democracy, territorial integrity and human rights, says Carla Martínez Machain, PhD, professor of political science in the UB College of Arts of Sciences.

Martínez Machain, an expert on military policy and international conflict, answers two major questions resulting from the military operation. What will happen to Venezuela’s government? And how will the United States’ actions affect the world order?

President Donald Trump has said that the U.S. will “run” Venezuela.

“This presumably does not mean that he will directly be governing Venezuela, but rather that he has established a cooperative deal with the current Venezuelan government,” said Martínez Machain. “Notably, the United States has made it clear that it currently has no plans to support the ascendence to power of the actual winner of the 2024 fraudulent elections rigged by Maduro, Edmundo González, or of the opposition’s leader, Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado. He instead has reached a cooperative agreement with Maduro’s vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, who is also a Chavista (a supporter of the left-wing political ideology named after the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez),” says Martínez Machain.

Regarding the future of the international world order, Martínez Machain says that the U.S.’s violation of the norm of sovereignty is likely to be interpreted by other major powers, such as China and Russia, as opening the door to similar actions against governments they disagree with.

“The United States itself may engage in further interventions, potentially against Iran or Greenland,” says Martínez Machain. “Political scientists have found that leaders of democratic states who find themselves facing domestic opposition (as Trump currently does after domestic repression by ICE forces) may benefit from military action abroad that can be claimed as a swift victory. This may mean that Venezuela is not the last foreign intervention by the Trump administration in 2026.”