Are the jaw-dropping predictions of full-time jobs being replaced by AI believable?

BUFFALO, N.Y. – Several analytics and artificial intelligence organizations have published eye-raising predictions of the number of jobs lost to AI. There have been forecasts that AI could cause the elimination of as many as 300 million jobs, while some industry associations anticipate a less impactful number.  

“In general, I am skeptical when I hear about these large numbers because it is way too early to tell,” said Joanne Song McLaughlin, PhD, associate professor of economics at the University at Buffalo. McLaughlin researches the field of labor economics.

McLaughlin said that there are too many unknowns about the methodology organizations employed to determining their headline-grabbing job replacement numbers. She sites time frame, estimation methods and data-driven assumptions as some of these factors.

“Estimating the impact of AI and automation on the workforce is highly complex,” said McLaughlin. “To better conceptualize the impact of AI, it is helpful to understand the distinction among jobs, tasks and skills. Jobs are a collection of tasks – workplace activities. Tasks can be done by either people or machines at work, or both. Workers apply skills that they possess to carry out these tasks.”

McLaughlin said that in this framework, AI could replace tasks within jobs, not jobs themselves, which is an important distinction.

“If AI complements workers’ skills, AI will make workers more productive and efficient. However, if AI enables firms to replace tasks and becomes less expensive than hiring workers, it will lead to job replacement,” said McLaughlin.

“In my opinion, it is still too early to make any prediction because there are too many unknown variables. However, I believe it will certainly change the required tasks of each job,” said McLaughlin.