Paul Senese is assistant professor of political science. He conducts research and teaches in the areas of international security and conflict processes, American foreign policy and international relations theory.

What specifically triggered this latest series of clashes between the Israelis and the Palestinians?

	Senese

Ariel Sharon, the leader of the opposition party in Israel, visited some holy sites. The visit and the lead-up to the visit were very controversial and many Palestinians took offense, mainly because of the timing. Sharon has been a strong critic of the peace process. The Palestinians were a bit surprised that the prime minister, Ehud Barak, acquiesced and let Sharon make this controversial visit to the peace sites. That was the proximate event. The more underlying cause for what's been going on is that this summer they came closer to a peace solution than they ever have before. I know there are groups within Israel and within the Arab population-the Palestinians and the non-Palestinian Arabs-who fear this. They don't want peace with Israel. So I think that some of that brewed up in this lull period since the end of the Camp David talks this summer. So there was a short-term cause and there was more of an underlying cause. Whenever you have a peace settlement between two sides that have been foes for a long, long time, there are certain elements on both sides that just fear this thing when it gets close. I think that's part of it, too.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has declared a "time out" in the peace efforts. What does this mean? Will a suspension of talks lead to an escalation of violence?

There are two reasons why he would ask for a time out. One would be to satisfy some of his domestic constituencies-those Israelis who may view him as weak and also those in the opposition party. Some people have noted that perhaps Barak would ask the opposition leader-Sharon-to join him in a unified, coalition leadership party. I think that he felt that if he kept negotiating while the Arabs were talking trash, so to speak, about him, that would make him look bad. The other reason is because of the Arab League meeting over the weekend. Some tough talk came out of that meeting. So it's pretty much expected, based on what came out of the Arab League meeting, that you would expect that Barak would do something, or suspend talks, or just sort of step back for awhile.

Will Arafat's response to Barak's time out-"go to hell"-just further fuel the fire?

My guess is that it won't fuel the fire that much for Barak, but it will fuel the fire for those people within Israel who don't want peace. It's clear Arafat made that statement because he was at an Arab League meeting and he was surrounded by leaders of Arab countries. Besides Egypt, Jordan and Morocco, there are strong elements within these other Arab countries that despise Israel. He's surrounded by this and he needs the support of those Arab leaders, especially the Arab leaders with money. It makes sense that he said what he said. These things have happened before; he says one thing out of one side of his mouth to the Israelis and then he says another thing out of the other side of his mouth to his Arab constituencies. He has a tough position. He has to satisfy a lot of people.

Can Arafat be an effective leader and lead the Palestinians to peace?

My first thought would be, well, who else? It's almost impossible to think of anybody else because he's been their leader for so long. My answer would be that I wouldn't put anything past this guy because he's done so much and he's evolved so much-he's such an amazing, amazing figure. I don't think there's anything inherent about him that will prevent peace. But of course, it's the forces surrounding him and his constituencies. There are a lot of Palestinian elites who are much more anti-Israel right now than Arafat is.

Would we be closer to peace in the Middle East if Rabin had not been assassinated?

No. Barak is from the same party as Rabin was. Barak is within the Israeli political spectrum considered to be "dove-like" compared to many Israeli politicians. In fact when he won the election last year, people were dancing in the streets thinking this will bring peace because the previous prime minister, Netanyahu, was really no friend of the peace process. In fact, I would argue that he did almost everything he could do to slow down the peace process.

Will we see peace in the Middle East in our lifetime?

I think it will become more and more peaceful over time. But it's going to take time. We're always going to have little eruptions. At a basic human level, it's going to take a lot of time for Arabs, Palestinians and Muslims to not only co-exist, but to actually like Israelis and Jews. We've seen incredible progress over the past seven years. If we can get over this period of retrenchment, you might call it, we can get back on track with this thing. I tend to be optimistic.

What question do you wish I had asked, and how would you have answered it?

I think people should keep in mind the longer-term currents of this whole thing, as opposed to the shorter-term events that we see every day-the rock throwing and rubber bullets. We should keep in mind the longer-term progression. We've made tremendous progress since 1993 and I don't think we should forget about that just because of these short-term periods of violence. Some of the progress that's been made is still there, it's still in place. It hasn't been eliminated because of what's happened in the past three weeks. It's still sitting there, waiting to be built upon. When Israel made peace with Egypt and Jordan, those peace settlements were easier because, although there was a lot of animosity between the two sides, they could come to a peace agreement and then go back to their own countries. With the Palestinians and the Israelis, they're going to have to put together a peace where they then share the same territory. They're going to be dealing with each other every day. That makes it a very, very difficult thing to do, in addition to the other factors. But all in all, I am still optimistic that, within the next few years, we will see further progress that builds on the substantial advances achieved over the previous seven years.