Proceedings of the MCEER Workshop on Ground Motion Methodologies for the Eastern United States

Keywords: Eastern United States.  Ground motion methodologies.  Ground motion models.  Uncertainty.  Ground motion simulation.  Synthetic time histories.  Peak ground amplitude. Nonstationarity.   Aleatory variability.  

Abstract: This workshop was held to evaluate the current methods for developing rock time histories for engineering applications in the Eastern United States. The participants focused on: 1) the amplitude of the ground motion (for example, response spectra); and 2) the character of the time history. The state-of-the-art for strong ground motion prediction in the region is evaluated and the variability of time histories from different modeling methods. The methods evaluated are: 1) Composite Fractal Source Method; 2) Stochastic Model with Empirical Source Spectrum; 3) Hybrid Kinematic Source Model; 4) Empirical and Analytical Greens Function Method; 5) Isochron Method; 6) Specific Barrier Method; 7) Stochastic Method with [omega squared] sub-events; and 7) Broadband Green's Function Method. Recommendations are provided about the seismological community's ability to predict absolute levels of expected shaking and the ability to judge whether synthetic motions require subsequent modification. The appendices contain information about the workshop, validation exercise results, and modeling results for each method that was evaluated. (Abstract adapted from text).