Enrollment 'sag' could impact on budget
Decline continues in graduate admissions; undergrad, transfer numbers exceed targets

By CHRISTINE VIDAL
News Services Editor

The university could face a budget deficit of as much as $2 million as a result of its 1998-99 enrollment shortfall, a deficit due largely to a decline in graduate enrollment in several key academic areas.

UB's enrollment for fiscal year 1998-99 failed to achieve targeted budget enrollments by 362 annual average full-time equivalent enrollment (AAFTE), according to Sean Sullivan, vice provost for academic information and planning.

While enrollment figures normally "sag" between the fall and spring semesters, this year the university is experiencing more of a shortfall than it normally does, he said.

The financial impact of the shortfall originally was estimated at $2 million, although Sullivan said the latest indications are the actual figure "is probably more like $1.5-2 million."

It is not yet clear precisely how the university will make up the gap in its budget resulting from this budget shortfall.

According to Sullivan, the provost's office has calculated the amount of the deficit attributable to each academic unit that did not achieve budget enrollment goals. Provost David Triggle will be discussing this issue with the deans as part of the process he has established to reach budget agreements with each unit for fiscal year 1999-2000 and beyond. Sullivan indicated the precise budget impact of the enrollment shortfall will not be known until SUNY begins its 1999-2000 fiscal year budget-allocation process.

In examining this enrollment shortfall, he pointed out, the biggest concern is the continuing decline in overall graduate enrollment. UB's graduate-student base has fallen from roughly 8,600 students six years ago to 7,700 this year. "Those are shortfalls that we did not expect and need to rebuild," Sullivan said.

"Our short-run problems are in certain graduate programs-Architecture, Education, Engineering, Nursing and Social Work-these units have shortfalls that we must address together to turn around the budget impact."

He added that the numbers for new freshmen and transfer students exceeded the targets and reflect successful efforts by Nicolas Goodman, vice provost for undergraduate education; Regina Toomey, director of admissions, and the admissions staff to increase applications and improve the yield of accepted applicants.

In a report prepared by Sullivan's office that broke down the university into 16 academic units, 10 did not meet their overall enrollment targets for 1998-99.

The largest AAFTE enrollment shortfalls were in the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (144), the Graduate School of Education (78), the School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences (66), the College of Arts and Sciences (65), The School of Architecture and Planning (53) and the School of Social Work (45).

"Historically, UB has always enrolled a number of students above the budgeted enrollment targets. Over the past 10 years, with SUNY's concurrence, we have been reducing enrollments in a planned fashion to balance enrollments and available funds. However, over the past three years, our enrollments have fallen below levels required to maintain our base-budget support. With the implementation of the new SUNY Resource Allocation Methodology (RAM) and with campuses now managing their own tuition revenue, there is now a much more direct relationship between enrollment performance and university budget," Sullivan concluded.

"Provost Triggle does not want to reduce academic budgets further than they have been over the past few years, but in this current enrollment situation, he may have no other alternative."