December 1, 1994: Vol26n12: Two profs, two views of election results

By STEVE COX
Reporter Staff
Like many political analysts across the country, political scientists
at UB are divided over the significance of last month's national
election results.
	To Franco Mattei, an assistant professor of political science,
the magnitude of the Republican landslide was far greater than
statistical analysis of past election results could ever have
predicted. Yet, James Twombly, also an assistant political science
professor, contends that national media descriptions of the election
as a major political realignment are not justified.
	The election, in which voters turned over both houses of
Congress, a majority of governorships and numerous state legislatures
to the Republican Party, was "a story of angry voters upset with the
status quo," according to Twombly. But, the election results reveal a
very directed voter anger -- directed, he said, at scandal-ridden
Democratic House and Senate incumbents. "Among incumbents, 92.4
percent of Democrats seeking reelection were reelected and 100 percent
of Republicans were reelected," he explained, "but the Rostenkowskis
and Foleys who were turned out of office send a clear signal that the
electorate is angry with the behavior of Congress."
	Mattei, who is researching a planned book on mid-term
elections to be published late next year, sees the '94 election as a
unique electoral shift to the right. In the south, which he defines as
the 11 states of the former Confederacy and border states Kentucky and
Oklahoma, this election may mean that the party of Lincoln is finally
forgiven. It marked the culmination of a 30-year march away from the
Democratic Party by southern voters.
	"For the first time since the Civil War a majority of the
House seats, a majority of the Senate seats and a majority of
governors (from this region) are Republicans," said Mattei. "Before
John Tower's election to LBJ's old Senate seat in 1961, there were no
Republican Senators from the south, and few members of the House."
	Twombly agrees that in the south the "realignment" is real and
could well be long-term. Nevertheless, Twombly points out that polls
show more voters nationally identify themselves as Democrats than just
two years ago, and fewer identify themselves as Republicans. "In terms
of getting his legislative agenda passed by Congress, President
Clinton had been the most successful President since Eisenhower,"
Twombly said.
	Mattei says that the high number of retirements, particularly
among Democrats, created an interesting shift in election financial
support. "Where money has traditionally supported incumbents, this
year it clearly supported Republicans, whether incumbent or
challenger," he said. Reports filed with the Federal Election
Commission through Oct. 19, the most recent reports available,
demonstrate a massive infusion of late money to GOP candidates. Also,
for the first time ever, there were more Republicans running without
major party opposition than Democrats similarly situated.
resident Clinton will likely become more
 	of a centrist to deal with the GOP-controlled Congress,
according to Twombly, with Clinton returning to the moderate issues
that propelled him in 1992. However, Mattei contends that the center
could be a very lonely place for Clinton.
	"Newt Gingrich is likely to be one of the most powerful
Speakers in history," Mattei predicted. "More than 50 percent of the
members of his caucus were elected this year or in 1992, and he is
sidestepping traditional seniority considerations in appointing
committee and party leaders." To Mattei, this will mean a more
cohesive group of Republicans in the House who cede great power to
Gingrich. This, coupled with the fact that many of the Democrats who
retired or lost were moderates, will produce a far more polarized
House of Representatives.
	One matter both Twombly and Mattei agree on is that 1996 is
still a long time away, politically speaking. It is too early to
predict the impact that the recent election will have on President
Clinton's reelection chances. 	"Dramatic shifts in power like this
tend to produce dramatic changes in public policy," observed Mattei.
"It waits to be seen whether voters will like the changes the new
Congress produces." Also, the last two midterm elections to see such
significant        o